Expected socioeconomic impacts of the Gaza war on neighbouring countries in the Arab region

ESCWA Publication: E/ESCWA/UNDP/2023/Policy brief.2

Country: Arab Republic of Egypt, Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, Lebanese Republic, State of Palestine

Publication Type: Policy briefs

Cluster: Governance and Conflict Prevention

Focus Area: Governance & enabling environment, Resilient development & conflict prevention

Initiatives: Development challenges, Support to the Palestinian people, Forced displacement

SDGs: Goal 1: No Poverty, Goal 3: Good Health and Well-Being, Goal 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth, Goal 17: Partnerships for the Goals

Keywords: War, Social aspects, Economic aspects, Financial aspects, Poverty, Neighbouring states, Death rate, Living conditions, Human development, Displaced persons, Food security, Medical supplies, Water supply, Sanitation services, Damages, Humanitarian standards, Inflation, Labour market, Employment, Banking, Tourism, Devaluation, Petroleum prices, Gross domestic product, Territories occupied by israel, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan

Expected socioeconomic impacts of the Gaza war on neighbouring countries in the Arab region

February 2024

This policy brief examines the likely effects of the Gaza war on the countries neighbouring the occupied Palestinian territory, focusing primarily on Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon. These countries were selected due to their proximity and exposure, in addition to the availability of data about them. The brief demonstrates how the impact of the war may add to pre-existing vulnerabilities in these countries, which have yet to fully recover from recent shocks.

Furthermore, the brief highlights the interconnectedness of economies across the region and stresses the need for proactive policy responses regarding the Gaza war. It attempts to estimate the economic cost on the Middle East, including in the occupied Palestinian territory, based on the current regional low-intensity war scenario. The brief also estimates the potential impact on human development in the selected countries and proposes immediate and short-term response measures to mitigate the economic impact.

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